Polling Matters

Polling Matters - Ep. 79 Race for the White House one week to go

In this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran, Leo and Rob look at the latest US election polling with one week left of the campaign to go. 

The team discuss whether the polls are tightening and Keiran explains why he is less relaxed about a Clinton victory than the others. We then turn to the electoral college and discuss key states to look out for next Tuesday including Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The podcast ends with a look ahead to what happens after next week, whoever wins.

Follow the Polling Matters team here:

@keiranpedley

@robvance

@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Ep. 78 Heathrow, Labour's floor, UKIP leadership and the 'No Brexit' Party

After a week off, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennett of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi to discuss Theresa May's growing in-tray with a specific focus on the decision to expand Heathrow airport and the resulting by-election in Richmond. Also discussed is whether the Labour Party vote has a 'floor', UKIP's leadership election and what prospects the polls say a 'STOP BREXIT' party might have in a General Election.

Follow this weeks guests here:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@asabenn

Polling Matters - Ep. 77 US election special

On this week's PB/Polling Matters show Keiran is joined by US elections experts Mark Gettleson from Portobello Communications and hosts of the LSE US podcast 'The Ballpark' Denise Baron and Chris Gilson. 

Topics discussed include reaction to Sunday's debate and how the polls have moved since. Keiran questions whether US polls have an appropriately balanced sample. We look at polling on why US voters are voting the way they are - is it 'for' each candidate or 'against' their respective opponents? We also talk Trump's war with Paul Ryan and the potential impact of early voting and what to expect from the battle for Congress.

Today's guests can be found here:

Keiran Pedley

@keiranpedley

Mark Gettleson

@MarksOutOf100

 

Chris Gilson

@ChrisHJGilson

 

Denise Baron

@BaronDenise

You can listen to the LSE podcast 'The Ballpark' here

Don't forget to subscribe to the Polling Matters podcast on iTunes or Android and leave a comment or rating if you like the show. You can also like the Polling Matters Facebook page here. Any sharing on social media really helps grow our audience and is very much appreciated.

Polling Matters - Ep. 76 Great (Br)expectations, why the Tories don't want a snap election and the Clinton 'surge'

On this week's show Keiran is joined by Rob Vance and Matt Singh to discuss this week's Conservative Party conference. We look at what the public expect from Brexit, what polling really tells us about the immigration vs the single market debate, why the Tories might not want a snap election after all and just how much trouble Trump's campaign is in as the race for the White House enters the final stages.

You can follow this week's guests at:

@keiranpedley

@robvance

@mattsingh_

Polling Matters - Ep. 75 US debate reaction and what now for Labour?

On this week's PB/Polling Matters show the team react to Monday's debate between Trump and Clinton and look at what happens next for the Labour Party after Corbyn's victory last weekend.

Rob looks at post debate polling showing a boost for Clinton and the team discuss whether it will last. Keiran explains why he hasn't ruled Trump out yet and Leo explains a strategy Trump might take in the final few weeks of the campaign. Keiran and Rob then look at which states will be important to watch out for in upcoming polls.

Leo then looks at Ian Warren's Labour leadership exit poll by YouGov and the team discuss what Labour MPs will do next. Keiran looks at recent ICM and ComRes polling and what it might mean for a future Labour policy offer as the party seeks to reunite and make up ground versus the Tories. 

Finally, the  team look ahead to Theresa May's first Tory conference speech  and what Corbyn has to do to look like a PM-in-waiting.

Follow this week's guests at:

@keiranpedley

@robvance

@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Ep. 74 Trump vs Clinton debates, 3rd parties and #Libdemfightback

On this week's show Keiran is joined by regular guests Leo Barasi and Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes to discuss the US presidential election and Lib Dem conference. 

On the US presidential election Keiran looks at the impact of third party candidates and what impact next week's debates will have on the race. Matthew explains how political bettors can make money betting on Hillary Clinton and the team guess which states Clinton will win in November.

On the Lib Dems, Leo looks at their prospects after this week's conference and their recent encouraging performances in local council by-elections. Keiran argues that they would be doing better with Nick Clegg as leader and Matt looks at the odds for the upcoming Witney by-election.

Follow this week's guests at:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@ladpolitics

Polling Matters - Ep. 73 US SPECIAL: Clinton's health, Ohio, Debates, Mr Brexit & Trump's problem with women

On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. 

The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.

Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.

Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.

Follow today’s guests on twitter:

Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley

Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve

Federica Cocco @federicacocco

Polling Matters - Ep. 72 Ashcroft polling, immigration v the single market, Junior Doctors and Trump's comeback

Keiran is back after a week off to discuss the latest polling and political developments with Katy Owen and Leo Barasi. 

As per the new format of the show each guest chooses some polling that they think is interesting and the group discuss what it means. Topics discussed this week include:

1) Leo reacts to Don Brind's analysis on the last show that Owen Smith can still win and looks at Corybn's impact on the Labour brand

2) Keiran looks at what Ashcroft polling tells us about what voters want from Brexit and what it means for government

3) Katy looks at YouGov polling on potential future Junior Doctors strike

..and then Keiran explains why his trip to America makes him think that Trump could still win.

You can follow this week's guests on twitter here

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@katyCHowen

Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and give the show a (nice) rating or comment.

https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/polling-matters/id951904578?mt=2

Polling Matters - Ep. 71 Is a Corbyn victory inevitable and what does Brexit mean?

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast we continue the new format of the show where each guest picks a polling or elections topic to talk about and the group discuss it. 

On this week's show Keiran Pedley is joined by former BBC journalist and Labour press officer Don Brind who regularly contributes to the PB site and is currently working with Saving Labour on Owen Smith's leadership campaign. Also joining Keiran is Harry Carr who is a political analyst at Sky News and Head of Sky Data.

Topics covered on today's show include whether a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour Leadership contest is inevitable, what past polling tells us about how Labour might do in a future General Election and recent YouGov polling on what the public think that Brexit should mean (even if Theresa May won't tell us).

You can follow each guest on today's show at

@keiranpedley

@BrindDon

@harrydcarr 

And for those keen on following polling data on twitter @SkyData is well worth looking at.

Polling Matters - Ep. 70 Are victories for May and Clinton inevitable? (Plus popular past Prime Ministers)

On this week's podcast the team continue the new format of the show. Each guest picks a polling topic to talk about and the group discuss it. Topics covered include whether victories for Theresa May and Hillary Clinton are inevitable and what the new PB/YouGov poll on the public's favourability towards different parties and politicians tells us about UK politics. The PB/Polling Matters team also discusses a recent YouGov poll showing Margaret Thatcher as Britain's most popular Prime Minister since she took office and what that tells us about the future of British politics.