Polling Matters - Episode 121 Breaking down the British Election Study

February 1, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask 'was there really a 'youthquake' at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?

Keiran and Leo also look at the role that gender played in the 2017 vote and uncover some striking data that suggests we might be getting public opinon on Brexit all wrong. 

Find all this and more on this week's show.

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Polling Matters - Episode 120 What do Brits think of other countries and how old is ‘too old’ to be Prime Minister?

January 25, 2018


On this week's podcast Keiran and Leo unveil some exclusive polling that asks how favourable or unfavourable the British public is towards the following countries (with some interesting differences by Brexit vote and age):

  NET: Favourable NET: Unfavourable Net
New Zealand 72% 3% +69
Australia 71% 4% +66
Spain 54% 8% +46
Japan 46% 8% +38
Germany 44% 14% +30
France 44% 18% +27
United States 43% 24% +19
Poland 31% 15% +16
South Africa 20% 26% -6
China 21% 28% -7
Argentina 15% 25% -10
Russia 11% 50% -39
Iran 5% 61% -55


(Note - nets may appear to be one point out in places due to rounding)

Source: Opinium. 19-22 Jan, 2018. Tables with appear on the Opinium website in due course.

Also on the show, Keiran and Leo look at polling on how young is 'too young' and how old is 'too old' to be Prime Minister and ask what this means for the current political leadership in the UK.

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Polling Matters - Episode 119 Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

January 17, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:

1) What the Tories' new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy
2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and what recent polling tells us about public opinion on the issue.
3) What's going on with Labour following the NEC elections, is a Corbynite succession now inevitable and will Corbyn's age be an issue at the next election?
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Polling Matters - Episode 118 Reshuffles, Oprah & public opinion on trust and Brexit

January 10, 2018

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns for a new year with a new format.

The podcast starts with Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discussing the latest news stories from the past week. Leo talks about this week’s reshuffle and the recent hiring and resignation of Toby Young and what it means for the Tories. Keiran then gives his impression on the latest goings on in Trump-land and whether Oprah could really run for president.

Keiran and Leo then unveil some exclusive polling from Opinium on how favourable the public are towards different political leaders in the UK and who they trust (and don’t trust) when it comes to Brexit. There are some woeful numbers for Tony Blair and some interesting stats on which organisations Leave voters trust to tell the truth on Brexit.

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Polling Matters - Episode 117 What do the DUP want and are we heading for a united Ireland?

December 7, 2017

On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership.

Also on the show, Keiran looks at the recent Survation poll showing Labour +8 ahead and why it is so different to what other pollsters have and dissects some data from NatCen on what the public think about the Brexit negotiations at 'half time' and how they would vote if there was another referendum tomorrow.

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Polling Matters - Episode 116 Why the polls are not moving, Brexit regret (or not) and Alabama

November 15, 2017

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Matt Singh to discuss the latest developments in Westminster and beyond and what the numbers tell us about what happens next.

On this week's show the team discuss why the polls appear not to be moving given the government's struggles, what the public really think about Brexit and whether the Democrat's could really win in Alabama in the U.S.

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Polling Matters - Episode 115 German election special: Merkel’s future & the German UKIP

September 27, 2017

On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Roland Kappe of UCL to discuss the recent German election results and what happens next.

Keiran and Roland look at the results that stood out, why the AfD did so well (and whether comparisons with UKIP are valid) plus what form of coalition Angela Merkel could form and why the German election result might be bad for Brexit negotiations.

Elsewhere on the show, Keiran reviews the latest polls and gives his snap reaction to Corbyn's conference speech on Wednesday.

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Polling Matters - Episode 114 Hurricanes, Trump’s approval rating, the EU withdrawal bill & Tory attempts to woo young voters

September 12, 2017

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran rounds up the latest political news and polling analysis from the US and the UK.

This week's episode is a solo effort due to a last minute cancellation by a guest, so Keiran takes the reigns alone in a shorter than usual show. Following his return from the States, Keiran takes you through the latest US political news including a slight uptick in Trump's approval rating following Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.

Closer to home, Keiran reviews the latest UK and Scotland polls, the fallout from this week's vote over the EU withdrawal bill and Tory attempts to woo back young voters from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party.

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Polling Matters - Episode 113 What will immigration look like after Brexit?

August 30, 2017

The PB/Polling Matters podcast returns with a review of the summer and in-depth interview on the Brexit talks and where Britain goes from here with Jonathan Portes.

Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at King's College London and a Senior Fellow for UK in a Changing Europe. An expert in matters of immigration and labour markets, Jonathan was Chief Economist at the DWP from 2002 to 2008 and at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He was also Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research between 2011 and 2015.

On this week's episode Keiran and Jonathan discuss the progress made in the Brexit talks, what immigration could look like after Brexit and the significance or otherwise of Labour's recent policy pronouncements on the single market.

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Polling Matters - Episode 112 End of term review

July 26, 2017

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date. 

The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna's recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership's position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed whether it matters considering the relative lack of difference in policy on Europe shared by the two main parties in Westminster.

The podcast concludes with each of the panellists explaining what they will be looking out for when Westminster returns in the autumn.

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Please note: The podcast will now take a three week break for the summer unless a major political story breaks.