Polling Matters - Episode 129 What drives how we vote? Customs Unions & Northern Ireland

May 16, 2018

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the demographic and ideological trends shaping our politics and how they drive voting intention.

Keiran and Leo also look at public opinion on customs unions and the impact that polling is having on Theresa May's calculations when it comes to Northern Ireland.

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Polling Matters - BONUS Episode 128 Breaking down the Local Election results

May 5, 2018

Keiran Pedley takes us through Thursday's Local Election results, calling out the results we should pay attention to and asking what this all means for the main parties at Westminster.

Follow Keiran at @Keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 127 Rudd resigns, public opinion on immigration, Trump’s visit and a look at the locals

May 2, 2018

On this week's podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn's personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling.

The podcast then turns to Rudd's resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the public think our immigration system is fair, too strict and specifically what the public think about a 'hostile environment' policy.

Also on the show, Leo and Keiran discuss polling on President Trump's upcoming 'working visit' and look ahead to the local elections this week. 

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NOTE - There will be a bonus podcast this week on Friday after the local elections.

Polling Matters - Episode 126 Local Elections preview with Prof. Colin Rallings

April 26, 2018

On this week's podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week's local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today's YouGov poll for Queen Mary University.

Follow Keiran Pedley at @keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 125 Are you racist? Windrush, Syria reaction and the future of polling

April 18, 2018

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss:

  • Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions
  • Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration
  • An exclusive survey from Opinium that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in Syria
  • What the Lords has to say about the future of polling and how pollsters should react

You can find data tables for the Opinium poll on Syria here http://opinium.co.uk/tables-weeks-polling-matters-survey/

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Polling Matters - Episode 124 Corbyn’s declining poll ratings, economic trust and who would vote for a new party anyway?

April 11, 2018

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss:

  • Jeremy Corbyn’s declining poll ratings and whether Russia or the ongoing anti-Semitism row is more to blame.
  • A new poll shows May and Hammond leading Corbyn and McDonnell +13 points on the economy. But is the economy as all-important politically as we once thought?
  • David Miliband’s favourabilty ratings – how do they compare to his brother and could he make a comeback?
  • Who would actually vote for a new party in Britain?
  • Why question wording really matters when looking at support for a second Brexit vote.

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Polling Matters - Episode 123 Russia reaction, Labour membership polling and one year to Brexit

April 4, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn's job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media.

Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the ever evolving Russia story and delve into some numbers you might have missed from YouGov on Brexit with less than a year to go until Britain 'leaves' the EU (depending on how you interpret the transition).

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Polling Matters - Episode 122 Tories take the lead? Russia reaction, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica and Labour antisemitism row

March 28, 2018

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter?

Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran and Leo also discuss the Facebook / Cambridge Analytica scandal, whether people really care about how their personal data is used and what it tells us about the Trump and Brexit campaigns.

Finally, the podcast looks at Labour's antisemitism row and why it could matter in a way you might not expect.

For all this and more click the link below:

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Polling Matters - Episode 121 Breaking down the British Election Study

February 1, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask 'was there really a 'youthquake' at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?

Keiran and Leo also look at the role that gender played in the 2017 vote and uncover some striking data that suggests we might be getting public opinon on Brexit all wrong. 

Find all this and more on this week's show.

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Polling Matters - Episode 120 What do Brits think of other countries and how old is ‘too old’ to be Prime Minister?

January 25, 2018


On this week's podcast Keiran and Leo unveil some exclusive polling that asks how favourable or unfavourable the British public is towards the following countries (with some interesting differences by Brexit vote and age):

  NET: Favourable NET: Unfavourable Net
New Zealand 72% 3% +69
Australia 71% 4% +66
Spain 54% 8% +46
Japan 46% 8% +38
Germany 44% 14% +30
France 44% 18% +27
United States 43% 24% +19
Poland 31% 15% +16
South Africa 20% 26% -6
China 21% 28% -7
Argentina 15% 25% -10
Russia 11% 50% -39
Iran 5% 61% -55


(Note - nets may appear to be one point out in places due to rounding)

Source: Opinium. 19-22 Jan, 2018. Tables with appear on the Opinium website in due course.

Also on the show, Keiran and Leo look at polling on how young is 'too young' and how old is 'too old' to be Prime Minister and ask what this means for the current political leadership in the UK.

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