Polling Matters - Episode 108 Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotiations, Lib Dems and the youth surge

June 21, 2017
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On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium. 

The team discuss this week's Queen's Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned.

The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori's data on 'who voted for who' at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years.

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@keiranpedley

@agkd123

@markpack

Polling Matters - Episode 107 General Election debrief: Between YouGov and the DUP

June 14, 2017
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This week’s podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more generally and where the polling industry goes from here.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP might want from the Tories and what any potential deal might mean for the future of the Northern Ireland peace process. Mick gives an interesting perspective on why he is worried about the peace process but still remains optimistic for the future of Northern Ireland.

Keiran then finishes by giving his thoughts on the election and the state of play in British politics

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@keiranpedley

@benjamin_lauderdale

@mickfealty

Polling Matters - Episode 106 Election eve special

June 7, 2017
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On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.

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@keiranpedley

@mikesmithsonpb

@tseofpb

Polling Matters - Episode 105 Bonus episode: Reviewing this weekend’s polls

June 4, 2017
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On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from https://britainelects.com/ to discuss the weekend's polls as the campaign enters the final week.

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@keiranpedley

@brtnelexben

Polling Matters - Episode 104 The YouGov forecast, pollster wars & May’s lost momentum

May 31, 2017
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On this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments.

Chris Curtis explains the background to this week's controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it.

Later in the show, the panel discuss why pollsters have such differing opinions on the state of the campaign and what May must do now to regain momentum and avioid the keys to Number 10 slipping through her fingers. Meanwhile, the team also unveil new polling on who voters trust most to negotiate Brexit and who they think will win.

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@chris__curtis

@AGKD123

 

Polling Matters - Episode 103 Explaining the Labour surge & June predictions

May 24, 2017
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On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour's recent poll surge is 'real' and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. 

Later in the show, Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that looks at how opinions of the main party leaders have changed since the election began. Also included in the survey is a question about who voters would trust to negotiate Brexit - May or Corbyn - with numbers trended from when the question was last asked in June. 

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@keiranpedley

@mattsingh_

@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 102 Breaking down the GfK / Business Insider survey results

May 17, 2017
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On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today's GfK/Business Insider poll results.

The panel discuss the scale of the Conservative lead, what's happened to the Lib Dems and why Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings are improving (and why it probably won't matter). They also discuss what's behind May's approval rating plus interesting findings from the survey that suggest Tony Blair is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn.

The discussion finishes with analysis on what British politics may look like after the General Election is over for all sides.

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@adampayne26

@adambienkov

Polling Matters - Ep. 101 Local election debrief, election forecasting and Macron with Steve Fisher

May 9, 2017
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On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll.

Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week's local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls differ from the national vote share last week and what it means. Steve explains why he thinks a Tory landslide is more likely than not and Keiran and Steve make time to discuss France too.

Later in the show, Keiran unveils new polling from Opinium that suggests the public are broadly buying Theresa May's key talking points in the election but may not be as thrilled at the prospect of a Tory landslide as the polls may suggest.

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@keiranpedley

@stephendfisher

 

 

 

Polling Matters - Episode 100 Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows and where is the Lib Dem surge?

May 3, 2017
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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off.

The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion polls and whether the polls might be wrong again (and how). The podcast also unveils the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey looking at the appetite (or lack thereof) for a second referendum on EU membership. Could this be why the Lib Dems struggle or is Adam Payne’s alternative suggestion the real reason?

Finally, the panel also look ahead to the local elections on Thursday and discuss the potential impact of turnout on the General Election result in June.

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@keiranpedley

@AGKD123

@Adampayne26

Polling Matters - Ep. 99 Tory landslides and Vive le pollsters! (with Chris Hanretty)

April 26, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia.

Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of 'En Marche' be succesful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might happen to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

To finish the show, Keiran unveils some new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that asks how engaged the public are in the campaign, what issues matter most to them and who is best placed to deal with them.

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@keiranpedley

@chrishanretty