Polling Matters - Episode 112 End of term review

July 26, 2017
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As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date. 

The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna's recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership's position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed whether it matters considering the relative lack of difference in policy on Europe shared by the two main parties in Westminster.

The podcast concludes with each of the panellists explaining what they will be looking out for when Westminster returns in the autumn.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@robvance

Please note: The podcast will now take a three week break for the summer unless a major political story breaks.

 

Polling Matters - Episode 111 Who is Britain’s most popular politician?

July 19, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss exclusive polling from Opinium that looks at how popular a series of frontline British politicians are.

The poll asked a nationally representative sample of UK adults to rate the following politicians on a scale of 0 to 10 on the basis of how favourable they were to them:

  • Jeremy Corbyn
  • Sadiq Khan
  • Yvette Cooper
  • Keir Starmer
  • Emily Thornberry
  • Diane Abbott
  • Ed Miliband
  • Theresa May
  • Boris Johnson
  • David Davis
  • Phillip Hammond
  • Ruth Davidson
  • Michael Gove
  • Amber Rudd
  • Vince Cable
  • Nicola Sturgeon
  • Arlene Foster

Jeremy Corbyn was the winner - but there's a catch. Listen to the podcast to find out more.

Keiran and Leo also discuss Tony Blair's recent Brexit intervention and ask whether he is a help or a hindrance to his cause.

Follow this week's guests:

@Keiranpedley

@leobarasi

 

Polling Matters - Episode 110 Support for a 2nd Brexit vote grows (plus THOSE Trump emails)

July 12, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's podcast Keiran is joined once more by US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua.

Keiran and JC discuss the political fallout in the States following scandalous revelations from emails. However, this time they are not Clinton emails but those of Donald Trump Jr. Keiran and JC also discuss what Corbyn’s surge might mean for US politics in the future and why America doesn’t have universal healthcare even though some polls suggest that the concept is more popular than you might think.

Later in the show, Keiran unveils some exclusive polling from Opinium showing that UK public opinion seems to be steadily edging towards support for a second referendum on EU membership. Opposition to another vote still leads by 7 points (48%-41% against) but this is down from 19 points in December. There will be more to come on this from Keiran on PB in the coming days but for now you will have to download the podcast to find out more.

Follow this week’s guests here:

@keiranpedley

@jcbua 

Polling Matters - Episode 109 Do voters think Corbyn is ready to be Prime Minister?

July 5, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Habib Butt and Leo Barasi to discuss the latest polling news and analysis of the week.

Key topics discussed this week include:

1) What the polls tell us about the state of the parties

2) Who the voters think would make the best PM and what the numbers mean 

3) Exclusive Polling Matters / Opinium numbers on why people voted as they did in June and whether Corbyn is ready to be PM or not

4) How Remainers and Brextiers like their steak

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@tseofpb

Polling Matters - Episode 108 Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotiations, Lib Dems and the youth surge

June 21, 2017
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On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium. 

The team discuss this week's Queen's Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned.

The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori's data on 'who voted for who' at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@agkd123

@markpack

Polling Matters - Episode 107 General Election debrief: Between YouGov and the DUP

June 14, 2017
00:0000:00

This week’s podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more generally and where the polling industry goes from here.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP might want from the Tories and what any potential deal might mean for the future of the Northern Ireland peace process. Mick gives an interesting perspective on why he is worried about the peace process but still remains optimistic for the future of Northern Ireland.

Keiran then finishes by giving his thoughts on the election and the state of play in British politics

Follow this week’s guests here:

@keiranpedley

@benjamin_lauderdale

@mickfealty

Polling Matters - Episode 106 Election eve special

June 7, 2017
00:0000:00

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@mikesmithsonpb

@tseofpb

Polling Matters - Episode 105 Bonus episode: Reviewing this weekend’s polls

June 4, 2017
00:0000:00

On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from https://britainelects.com/ to discuss the weekend's polls as the campaign enters the final week.

Follow this week's guests

@keiranpedley

@brtnelexben

Polling Matters - Episode 104 The YouGov forecast, pollster wars & May’s lost momentum

May 31, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments.

Chris Curtis explains the background to this week's controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it.

Later in the show, the panel discuss why pollsters have such differing opinions on the state of the campaign and what May must do now to regain momentum and avioid the keys to Number 10 slipping through her fingers. Meanwhile, the team also unveil new polling on who voters trust most to negotiate Brexit and who they think will win.

Follow this week's guests

@keiranpedley

@chris__curtis

@AGKD123

 

Polling Matters - Episode 103 Explaining the Labour surge & June predictions

May 24, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour's recent poll surge is 'real' and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. 

Later in the show, Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that looks at how opinions of the main party leaders have changed since the election began. Also included in the survey is a question about who voters would trust to negotiate Brexit - May or Corbyn - with numbers trended from when the question was last asked in June. 

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@mattsingh_

@leobarasi