Polling Matters - Episode 125 Are you racist? Windrush, Syria reaction and the future of polling

April 18, 2018

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss:

  • Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions
  • Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration
  • An exclusive survey from Opinium that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in Syria
  • What the Lords has to say about the future of polling and how pollsters should react

You can find data tables for the Opinium poll on Syria here http://opinium.co.uk/tables-weeks-polling-matters-survey/

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Polling Matters - Episode 124 Corbyn’s declining poll ratings, economic trust and who would vote for a new party anyway?

April 11, 2018

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss:

  • Jeremy Corbyn’s declining poll ratings and whether Russia or the ongoing anti-Semitism row is more to blame.
  • A new poll shows May and Hammond leading Corbyn and McDonnell +13 points on the economy. But is the economy as all-important politically as we once thought?
  • David Miliband’s favourabilty ratings – how do they compare to his brother and could he make a comeback?
  • Who would actually vote for a new party in Britain?
  • Why question wording really matters when looking at support for a second Brexit vote.

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Polling Matters - Episode 123 Russia reaction, Labour membership polling and one year to Brexit

April 4, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn's job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media.

Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the ever evolving Russia story and delve into some numbers you might have missed from YouGov on Brexit with less than a year to go until Britain 'leaves' the EU (depending on how you interpret the transition).

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Polling Matters - Episode 122 Tories take the lead? Russia reaction, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica and Labour antisemitism row

March 28, 2018

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter?

Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran and Leo also discuss the Facebook / Cambridge Analytica scandal, whether people really care about how their personal data is used and what it tells us about the Trump and Brexit campaigns.

Finally, the podcast looks at Labour's antisemitism row and why it could matter in a way you might not expect.

For all this and more click the link below:

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Polling Matters - Episode 121 Breaking down the British Election Study

February 1, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask 'was there really a 'youthquake' at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?

Keiran and Leo also look at the role that gender played in the 2017 vote and uncover some striking data that suggests we might be getting public opinon on Brexit all wrong. 

Find all this and more on this week's show.

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Polling Matters - Episode 120 What do Brits think of other countries and how old is ‘too old’ to be Prime Minister?

January 25, 2018


On this week's podcast Keiran and Leo unveil some exclusive polling that asks how favourable or unfavourable the British public is towards the following countries (with some interesting differences by Brexit vote and age):

  NET: Favourable NET: Unfavourable Net
New Zealand 72% 3% +69
Australia 71% 4% +66
Spain 54% 8% +46
Japan 46% 8% +38
Germany 44% 14% +30
France 44% 18% +27
United States 43% 24% +19
Poland 31% 15% +16
South Africa 20% 26% -6
China 21% 28% -7
Argentina 15% 25% -10
Russia 11% 50% -39
Iran 5% 61% -55


(Note - nets may appear to be one point out in places due to rounding)

Source: Opinium. 19-22 Jan, 2018. Tables with appear on the Opinium website in due course.

Also on the show, Keiran and Leo look at polling on how young is 'too young' and how old is 'too old' to be Prime Minister and ask what this means for the current political leadership in the UK.

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Polling Matters - Episode 119 Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

January 17, 2018

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:

1) What the Tories' new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy
2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and what recent polling tells us about public opinion on the issue.
3) What's going on with Labour following the NEC elections, is a Corbynite succession now inevitable and will Corbyn's age be an issue at the next election?
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Polling Matters - Episode 118 Reshuffles, Oprah & public opinion on trust and Brexit

January 10, 2018

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns for a new year with a new format.

The podcast starts with Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discussing the latest news stories from the past week. Leo talks about this week’s reshuffle and the recent hiring and resignation of Toby Young and what it means for the Tories. Keiran then gives his impression on the latest goings on in Trump-land and whether Oprah could really run for president.

Keiran and Leo then unveil some exclusive polling from Opinium on how favourable the public are towards different political leaders in the UK and who they trust (and don’t trust) when it comes to Brexit. There are some woeful numbers for Tony Blair and some interesting stats on which organisations Leave voters trust to tell the truth on Brexit.

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Polling Matters - Episode 117 What do the DUP want and are we heading for a united Ireland?

December 7, 2017

On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership.

Also on the show, Keiran looks at the recent Survation poll showing Labour +8 ahead and why it is so different to what other pollsters have and dissects some data from NatCen on what the public think about the Brexit negotiations at 'half time' and how they would vote if there was another referendum tomorrow.

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Polling Matters - Episode 116 Why the polls are not moving, Brexit regret (or not) and Alabama

November 15, 2017

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Matt Singh to discuss the latest developments in Westminster and beyond and what the numbers tell us about what happens next.

On this week's show the team discuss why the polls appear not to be moving given the government's struggles, what the public really think about Brexit and whether the Democrat's could really win in Alabama in the U.S.

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