Polling Matters - Episode 104 The YouGov forecast, pollster wars & May’s lost momentum

May 31, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments.

Chris Curtis explains the background to this week's controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it.

Later in the show, the panel discuss why pollsters have such differing opinions on the state of the campaign and what May must do now to regain momentum and avioid the keys to Number 10 slipping through her fingers. Meanwhile, the team also unveil new polling on who voters trust most to negotiate Brexit and who they think will win.

Follow this week's guests

@keiranpedley

@chris__curtis

@AGKD123

 

Polling Matters - Episode 103 Explaining the Labour surge & June predictions

May 24, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour's recent poll surge is 'real' and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. 

Later in the show, Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that looks at how opinions of the main party leaders have changed since the election began. Also included in the survey is a question about who voters would trust to negotiate Brexit - May or Corbyn - with numbers trended from when the question was last asked in June. 

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@mattsingh_

@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 102 Breaking down the GfK / Business Insider survey results

May 17, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today's GfK/Business Insider poll results.

The panel discuss the scale of the Conservative lead, what's happened to the Lib Dems and why Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings are improving (and why it probably won't matter). They also discuss what's behind May's approval rating plus interesting findings from the survey that suggest Tony Blair is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn.

The discussion finishes with analysis on what British politics may look like after the General Election is over for all sides.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@adampayne26

@adambienkov

Polling Matters - Ep. 101 Local election debrief, election forecasting and Macron with Steve Fisher

May 9, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll.

Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week's local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls differ from the national vote share last week and what it means. Steve explains why he thinks a Tory landslide is more likely than not and Keiran and Steve make time to discuss France too.

Later in the show, Keiran unveils new polling from Opinium that suggests the public are broadly buying Theresa May's key talking points in the election but may not be as thrilled at the prospect of a Tory landslide as the polls may suggest.

Follw this week's guests

@keiranpedley

@stephendfisher

 

 

 

Polling Matters - Episode 100 Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows and where is the Lib Dem surge?

May 3, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off.

The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion polls and whether the polls might be wrong again (and how). The podcast also unveils the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey looking at the appetite (or lack thereof) for a second referendum on EU membership. Could this be why the Lib Dems struggle or is Adam Payne’s alternative suggestion the real reason?

Finally, the panel also look ahead to the local elections on Thursday and discuss the potential impact of turnout on the General Election result in June.

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@AGKD123

@Adampayne26

Polling Matters - Ep. 99 Tory landslides and Vive le pollsters! (with Chris Hanretty)

April 26, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia.

Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of 'En Marche' be succesful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might happen to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

To finish the show, Keiran unveils some new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that asks how engaged the public are in the campaign, what issues matter most to them and who is best placed to deal with them.

Follow this week's guests

@keiranpedley

@chrishanretty

Polling Matters - Ep.98 Snap election - state of the parties and the race ahead

April 20, 2017
00:0000:00

With a snap general election announced, Leo Barasi is joined by Progress deputy editor Conor Pope, and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinski, to talk about the state of the parties and the race ahead. The Tories seem to be on course for a guaranteed landslide but does that mean they won't be able to scare potential voters about a Corbyn government? What policies and arguments can Labour offer to fight back? How far can the Lib Dems go? And is it all gloom for Ukip?

Keiran is on holiday.

Follow this week's guests:
@conorpope
@jantalipinski
@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Ep. 97 The Lib Dem fightback, the Gorton by-election and time for Nick Clegg?

April 12, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party's prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election?  Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the new poll from Lord Ashcroft and what it says about the challenges the government will face in negotiating a popular Brexit deal. Keiran is on holiday.

Follow this week's guests:

@leobarasi

@markpack

Polling Matters - Ep. 96 Local elections and what will voters compromise on Brexit?

April 5, 2017
00:0000:00

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Colin Rallings from the University of Plymouth to discuss the latest Rallings and Thrasher projections for the coming local elections in May and what they might mean for the wider political environment. Later in the show, Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi to discuss the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which looks at what voters would be prepared to compromise in the coming Brexit deal.

Polling Matters - Ep. 95 Brexit day: Article 50 & what now for Scotland? Plus GfK Return

March 29, 2017
00:0000:00

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Brexit day, Article 50 polling, Scotland’s future and GfK returns

On a momentous day in British history, Keiran and Rob discuss public opinion on Brexit as the Article 50 letter lands in Brussels and Keiran discusses Scotland’s future with Ipsos Mori Scotland Research Director Mark Diffley. Finally, Keiran talks more about new GfK political polling that has made a splash this week including numbers showing Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating among Brits being as weak as Donald Trump’s. More on that polling (including methodology and data tables here).

The segment on Scotland dominates this week’s episode and is a particularly wide ranging discussion, including new information on why the polls are not moving towards Independence at this stage. Keiran and Rob also unveil new Polling Matters / Opinium numbers showing party cross-breaks that might surprise you.

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@robvance

@markdiffley1

Do you want to support the PB/Polling Matters podcast?

Please vote for the show in the British Podcast Awards for ‘Listeners choice’. Just go to https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/vote  search for ‘Polling Matters’ and click on the avatar with the graph (not the one by Frank Newport). Shortlisted shows get featured on The Guardian so it really helps grow our audience if we make the cut