Polling Matters - Ep. 74 Trump vs Clinton debates, 3rd parties and #Libdemfightback

September 21, 2016

On this week's show Keiran is joined by regular guests Leo Barasi and Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes to discuss the US presidential election and Lib Dem conference. 

On the US presidential election Keiran looks at the impact of third party candidates and what impact next week's debates will have on the race. Matthew explains how political bettors can make money betting on Hillary Clinton and the team guess which states Clinton will win in November.

On the Lib Dems, Leo looks at their prospects after this week's conference and their recent encouraging performances in local council by-elections. Keiran argues that they would be doing better with Nick Clegg as leader and Matt looks at the odds for the upcoming Witney by-election.

Follow this week's guests at:


Polling Matters - Ep. 73 US SPECIAL: Clinton’s health, Ohio, Debates, Mr Brexit & Trump’s problem with women

September 15, 2016

On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. 

The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.

Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.

Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.

Follow today’s guests on twitter:

Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley

Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve

Federica Cocco @federicacocco

Polling Matters - Ep. 72 Ashcroft polling, immigration v the single market, Junior Doctors and Trump’s comeback

September 7, 2016

Keiran is back after a week off to discuss the latest polling and political developments with Katy Owen and Leo Barasi. 

As per the new format of the show each guest chooses some polling that they think is interesting and the group discuss what it means. Topics discussed this week include:
1) Leo reacts to Don Brind's analysis on the last show that Owen Smith can still win and looks at Corybn's impact on the Labour brand
2) Keiran looks at what Ashcroft polling tells us about what voters want from Brexit and what it means for government
3) Katy looks at YouGov polling on potential future Junior Doctors strike
..and then Keiran explains why his trip to America makes him think that Trump could still win.
You can follow this week's guests on twitter here
Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and give the show a (nice) rating or comment.

Polling Matters - Ep. 71 Is a Corbyn victory inevitable and what does Brexit mean?

August 24, 2016

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast we continue the new format of the show where each guest picks a polling or elections topic to talk about and the group discuss it. 

On this week's show Keiran Pedley is joined by former BBC journalist and Labour press officer Don Brind who regularly contributes to the PB site and is currently working with Saving Labour on Owen Smith's leadership campaign. Also joining Keiran is Harry Carr who is a political analyst at Sky News and Head of Sky Data.
Topics covered on today's show include whether a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour Leadership contest is inevitable, what past polling tells us about how Labour might do in a future General Election and recent YouGov polling on what the public think that Brexit should mean (even if Theresa May won't tell us).
You can follow each guest on today's show at

And for those keen on following polling data on twitter @SkyData is well worth looking at.

Polling Matters - Ep. 70 Are victories for May and Clinton inevitable? (Plus popular past Prime Ministers)

August 18, 2016

On this week's podcast the team continue the new format of the show. Each guest picks a polling topic to talk about and the group discuss it. Topics covered include whether victories for Theresa May and Hillary Clinton are inevitable and what the new PB/YouGov poll on the public's favourability towards different parties and politicians tells us about UK politics. The PB/Polling Matters team also discusses a recent YouGov poll showing Margaret Thatcher as Britain's most popular Prime Minister since she took office and what that tells us about the future of British politics.

Polling Matters - Ep. 69 Life after Brexit, Scotland, Labour leadership and what happens now

August 10, 2016

On this week's episode Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Julia Rampen of the New Statesman. Each guest chooses an interesting poll finding and we discuss the implications. This week's subjects include attitudes to Scottish Independence post Brexit, what would happen if Labour split and what polling tells us about why Brexit happened and what comes next.

Polling Matters - Ep. 68 Theresa May’s honeymoon, Ruth Davidson, snap elections and Trump

July 27, 2016

On this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Katy Owen and Adam Drummond to discuss Theresa May’s honeymoon period and whether she should call an early General Election. Each guest picks some polling that has particularly interested them this week. Keiran analyses YouGov polling data showing Ruth Davidson as almost as popular as Nicola Sturgeon and asks whether the Tories are now the real long term opposition to the SNP in Scotland and the panel also discuss the Labour leadership and whether Trump can beat Clinton.

Katy Owen is Programme Manager at Common Vision and formerly a Senior Project Manager at Survation. You can follow her on twitter at @KatyCHOwen

Adam Drummond is Head of Political Polling at Opinium. You can follow Adam on twitter at @AGKD123

Polling Matters - Ep. 67 Corbyn vs Smith and back across the pond

July 20, 2016

On this week's show Keiran is joined by Labour Peer Stewart Wood and Conor Pope from Labour List. We talk about the Labour leadership race between Owen Smith and Jeremy Corbyn, what recent YouGov polling tells us about the race and the future of the party and just how confident should Theresa May really be? 

Meanwhile, for the first time in a few weeks we talk about events stateside and whether Donald Trump can win the presidency as he prepares for his convention speech on Thursday.

Polling Matters - Ep. 66 New Prime Minister and what now for Labour?

July 13, 2016

On a momentous day in British politics Britain has a new Prime Minister. Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Asa Bennett of the Telegraph to discuss the Theresa May's inbox and what is next for the Labour Party. 

Polling Matters - Ep. 65 The legacy of Iraq and is Theresa May unstoppable?

July 6, 2016

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran and Rob discuss the legacy of Iraq on British politics and the latest on the Tory leadership contest. This episode includes a detailed discussion on recent YouGov polling that shows Theresa May in a commanding position and Keiran argues that the Tories should consider crowning the Home Secretary as Prime Minister early. Meanwhile, the team discuss whether a Labour MP that supported the Iraq War can really hope to lead the Labour Party and what that says about the attempted Labour coup against Jeremy Corbyn.

You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley and Rob at @robvance