Polling Matters

Polling Matters - Episode 119 Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:

1) What the Tories' new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy

 

2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and what recent polling tells us about public opinion on the issue.

 

3) What's going on with Labour following the NEC elections, is a Corbynite succession now inevitable and will Corbyn's age be an issue at the next election?

 

Follow the podcasters here:

 

@keiranpedley

 

@leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 118 Reshuffles, Oprah & public opinion on trust and Brexit

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns for a new year with a new format.

The podcast starts with Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discussing the latest news stories from the past week. Leo talks about this week’s reshuffle and the recent hiring and resignation of Toby Young and what it means for the Tories. Keiran then gives his impression on the latest goings on in Trump-land and whether Oprah could really run for president.

Keiran and Leo then unveil some exclusive polling from Opinium on how favourable the public are towards different political leaders in the UK and who they trust (and don’t trust) when it comes to Brexit. There are some woeful numbers for Tony Blair and some interesting stats on which organisations Leave voters trust to tell the truth on Brexit.

Follow this week’s guests on twitter:

@leobarasi

@keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 117 What do the DUP want and are we heading for a united Ireland?

On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership.

Also on the show, Keiran looks at the recent Survation poll showing Labour +8 ahead and why it is so different to what other pollsters have and dissects some data from NatCen on what the public think about the Brexit negotiations at 'half time' and how they would vote if there was another referendum tomorrow.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@mickfealty

Polling Matters - Episode 116 Why the polls are not moving, Brexit regret (or not) and Alabama

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Matt Singh to discuss the latest developments in Westminster and beyond and what the numbers tell us about what happens next.

On this week's show the team discuss why the polls appear not to be moving given the government's struggles, what the public really think about Brexit and whether the Democrat's could really win in Alabama in the U.S.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@mattsingh_

Polling Matters - Episode 115 German election special: Merkel's future & the German UKIP

On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Roland Kappe of UCL to discuss the recent German election results and what happens next.

Keiran and Roland look at the results that stood out, why the AfD did so well (and whether comparisons with UKIP are valid) plus what form of coalition Angela Merkel could form and why the German election result might be bad for Brexit negotiations.

Elsewhere on the show, Keiran reviews the latest polls and gives his snap reaction to Corbyn's conference speech on Wednesday.

Follow this week's guests:

@rolandkappe 

@keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 114 Hurricanes, Trump's approval rating, the EU withdrawal bill & Tory attempts to woo young voters

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran rounds up the latest political news and polling analysis from the US and the UK.

This week's episode is a solo effort due to a last minute cancellation by a guest, so Keiran takes the reigns alone in a shorter than usual show. Following his return from the States, Keiran takes you through the latest US political news including a slight uptick in Trump's approval rating following Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.

Closer to home, Keiran reviews the latest UK and Scotland polls, the fallout from this week's vote over the EU withdrawal bill and Tory attempts to woo back young voters from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party.

Follow Keiran at @keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 113 What will immigration look like after Brexit?

The PB/Polling Matters podcast returns with a review of the summer and in-depth interview on the Brexit talks and where Britain goes from here with Jonathan Portes.

Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at King's College London and a Senior Fellow for UK in a Changing Europe. An expert in matters of immigration and labour markets, Jonathan was Chief Economist at the DWP from 2002 to 2008 and at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He was also Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research between 2011 and 2015.

On this week's episode Keiran and Jonathan discuss the progress made in the Brexit talks, what immigration could look like after Brexit and the significance or otherwise of Labour's recent policy pronouncements on the single market.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@jdportes

 

Polling Matters - Episode 112 End of term review

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date. 

The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna's recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership's position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed whether it matters considering the relative lack of difference in policy on Europe shared by the two main parties in Westminster.

The podcast concludes with each of the panellists explaining what they will be looking out for when Westminster returns in the autumn.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@robvance

Please note: The podcast will now take a three week break for the summer unless a major political story breaks.

 

Polling Matters - Episode 111 Who is Britain's most popular politician?

On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss exclusive polling from Opinium that looks at how popular a series of frontline British politicians are.

The poll asked a nationally representative sample of UK adults to rate the following politicians on a scale of 0 to 10 on the basis of how favourable they were to them:

• Jeremy Corbyn
• Sadiq Khan
• Yvette Cooper
• Keir Starmer
• Emily Thornberry
• Diane Abbott
• Ed Miliband
• Theresa May
• Boris Johnson
• David Davis
• Phillip Hammond
• Ruth Davidson
• Michael Gove
• Amber Rudd
• Vince Cable
• Nicola Sturgeon
• Arlene Foster

Jeremy Corbyn was the winner - but there's a catch. Listen to the podcast to find out more.

Keiran and Leo also discuss Tony Blair's recent Brexit intervention and ask whether he is a help or a hindrance to his cause.

Follow this week's guests:

@Keiranpedley

@leobarasi

 

Polling Matters - Episode 110 Support for a 2nd Brexit vote grows (plus THOSE Trump emails)

On this week's podcast Keiran is joined once more by US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua.

Keiran and JC discuss the political fallout in the States following scandalous revelations from emails. However, this time they are not Clinton emails but those of Donald Trump Jr. Keiran and JC also discuss what Corbyn’s surge might mean for US politics in the future and why America doesn’t have universal healthcare even though some polls suggest that the concept is more popular than you might think.

Later in the show, Keiran unveils some exclusive polling from Opinium showing that UK public opinion seems to be steadily edging towards support for a second referendum on EU membership. Opposition to another vote still leads by 7 points (48%-41% against) but this is down from 19 points in December. There will be more to come on this from Keiran on PB in the coming days but for now you will have to download the podcast to find out more.

Follow this week’s guests here:

@keiranpedley

@jcbua