Polling Matters

Polling Matters - Episode 139 How long will Trump last (and who will run against him)? Plus, how does public opinion on Brexit look ahead of party conference season?

Polling Matters returns for an extended episode exploring the latest goings-on in Washington DC and what a recent avalanche of Brexit related polling tells us about public opinion as we head into a crucial party conference season.

In part one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at Trump's approval rating and what that says about his prospects for re-election and the GOP's prospects in the upcoming midterms. Keiran and Leo also look in-depth at the potential Democratic candidates to face him in 2020, with a special focus on Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as they compete for the right to lead the Democrat's progressive wing.

In part two, Keiran and Leo examine a range of recent polls that present conflicting messages about the state of public opinion on Brexit. Keiran argues that polling on the outcome of a second referendum is useless at this stage, Leo looks at whether support for a second vote is increasing and both Keiran and Leo have a few choice words for a recent article in The Mirror suggesting that 4 million people are prepared to vote Labour if Corbyn is clearer on their Brexit policy. Finally, the pair examine what the numbers mean for Brexit in practical terms as we enter a busy party conference season.

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@Leobarasi

@Keiranpedley

Got a question for the Polling Matters team? Why not message Keiran or Leo on twitter?

Polling Matters - Episode 138 Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Boris makes tea and "wreath-gate"

On this week's PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium.

How many Brits think the earth is flat? Is Elvis alive? Were the moon landings faked? Is Paul dead? Is Nessie real? Our podcasters find out the answers, plus which conspiracy theory has less than half thinking it is false...

Also on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss how Corbyn's latest troubles might impact the polls and what the public think about Boris Johnson's recent comments on the Burka.

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@Leobarasi

@Keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 137 Are the public turning against Brexit and what do they really think of Communism?

This week's PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into three parts.

In part one: Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss this week's Sky Data poll and look at the evidence for whether the public really are turning against Brexit and what this might mean for the debate in Westminster

In part two: Keiran and Leo look at some exclusive PB / Opinium polling on different political systems and ideologies. What do the public think about socialism and capitalism? Is communism really being rehabilitated? And what do the public really understand about the different ideological terms that are often bandied about in the press

In part three: Finally Leo asks some important questions about who pays for polling and how much we should know / pollsters should be made to publish about who pays for their work

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@Keiranpedley

@Leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far right and the death penalty and more

On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor in to decisions in Westminster.

Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid's decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face execution when facing trial in the United States.

All this and more (including Corbyn's Brexit speech and the latest goings on in North Antrim) on the link below:

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@Leobarasi

@Keiranpedley

Polling Matters - Episode 135 The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s been happening in Westminster this week, including Boris Johnson’s resignation speech today. Asa looks ahead to a critical Tory party conference season and gives his perspective on who might replace Theresa May in the future.

Finally, Keiran sums up what we’ve learned and explains why Boris Johnson reminds him of David Miliband and why Theresa May reminds him of Mr Burns from the Simpsons. A stretch? You’ll have to listen to find out why...

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@Keiranpedley

@MrJCrouch

@asabenn

Polling Matters - Emergency podcast: Bye bye Boris & what happens next?

On a special episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss a momentous 24 hours in Westminster that has seen both David Davis and Boris Johnson resign. Keiran and Leo ask what happens next and look at what polling of Tory members by YouGov tells us about the future direction of the Conservative Party and who might come to lead it.

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@Keiranpedley

@Leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 133 Pollsters. hedge funds, Heathrow and why is Blair so noisy and Cameron so quiet?

On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a recent Bloomberg story investigating links between hedge funds and pollsters on the day of the EU referendum, public opinion on Heathrow and the environment and ask what Blair hopes to achieve with his latest intervention (and why David Cameron seems to be so quiet).

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@Keiranpedley

@Leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 132 NHS funding, 'Brexit dividends' and UK drugs policy

On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at public opinion on the NHS as it hits 70 years old in light of the government's promise to pump in extra cash. Keiran takes us through what the public think of the policy and whether they would accept tax rises to pay for it alongside data on how perceptions of the quality of care provided by the NHS have changed over time.

Later in the show, Leo looks at public opinion on UK drug laws, especially those related to cannabis as the government looks to change the law and discusses how policy might shift in the future. Leo also raises the important distinction between 'decimalisation' and 'legalisation' that appears to go over many commentators heads.

Finally, Keiran and Leo briefly look at US public opinion on the Trump administration's policy of separate children of immigrants from their parents at the US border. Spoiler alert: it's very unpopular.

Follow this week's guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi 

Polling Matters - Episode 131 Trump meets Kim and parliament votes on Brexit

On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss Trump's historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore. Keiran and Leo debate the significance of the meeting and what happens now whilst Keiran takes us through the latest polling on Trump that shows what his re-election campaign might look like, why he remains in a tough spot and why these negotiations with North Korea could make or break him.

Later in the show, Keiran and Leo discuss this week's events in parliament. Leo then takes us through some recent polling by Opinium on what the public think of the single market, freedom of movement and the impact that Brexit will have on their own personal finances. Finally, Keiran and Leo take some time to give their thoughts on what might happen in the Autumn and what successfully navigating Brexit will mean for Theresa May's legacy.

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@Keiranpedley

@Leobarasi

Polling Matters - Episode 130 Ireland post referendum, Border polls, Leave / Remain voters deep dive and David Davis backstop vs backdown?

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! On this week's episode, Keiran is joined by Irish journalist and host of 'The Irish Passport' podcast Naomi O'Leary to discuss the fallout from the recent referendum on abortion and where Ireland goes from here. Naomi gives her take on how Ireland has come to change so much in such a relatively short space of time and the relationship between the Irish people and the Catholic church, alongside perspectives on Brexit in Ireland.

Keiran is then joined by Dr Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in statistics, pollster with Ireland Thinks and former Targeting and Analysis manager for the UK Labour Party. Kevin also gives his perspective on the recent Irish referendum and looks at polling data on a united Ireland. Kevin goes on to discuss his recent work with Ian Warren of Election Data, looking at the breakdown of Remain and Leave voters in UK parliamentary constituencies, telling us what it has told him about Brexit and politics in Westminster.

Finally, Keiran gives his take on today's battle between Theresa May and David Davis.

Follow this week's guests:

@Keiranpedley

@NaomiOhReally

@kevcunningham